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 | |  |  | VOA Online Discussion: Global Population Pressure | | Guest: Robert Walker, Executive Vice President, Population Institute
Date: 29 July 09
Moderator: Erin Brummett |
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Erin: Welcome to T2A chat as we take a closer look at global population pressures with Robert Walker, Executive Vice President of the Population Institute in Washington, D.C. The world¡¦s population is growing faster and older with no sign the social and economic pressures that go with this growth will ease any time soon. ------------------------------- | |
Claire: The focus of this year¡¦s UN World Population Day was on July 11 and its focus this year was on Investing in Women. How can the world better do this and how will that change the world population? Bob: The most important thing we can do for women is to provide universal access to reproductive health services. Of all the UN Millenium Development Goals, this is the one where we have shown the least progress. In the developing world a woman's risk of dying due to pregnancy or child birth is still 100 times higher than the developed world. In sub-saharan Africa one out of 22 women will die of pregnancy or child birth causes. Most importantly women in developing nations need access to modern methods of contraception. There are an estimated 200-million women in the world with an unmet need for family planning, meaning if they want to limit the number of children they bear or space them more than three years apart. Every 100-million dollars invested in international family planning assistance prevents 1.2 million unintended pregnancies, 825-thousand abortions, 70-thousand infant deaths and four thousand maternal deaths, so the payoffs to family planning and investments in reproductive health are very very significant.
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| | Claire: What are some causes of undercounting people in the US Census and what are the solutions to these problems? Why is it so difficult to get an accurate count?
Bob: Next year the U.S. Census Bureau will mail a census form to every American household but only about two-thirds of all households will return the survey. The Census Bureau will need to hire 500-thousand census takers to survey the remaining households. But many of the households in low income areas in particular, are hard to count, particularly if there are people living in large rental units or crowded housing. Often times people are not home or refuse to answer the questions. Sometimes it's a language barrier or a reluctance to talk to Federal officials. As a result some people don't get counted, particularly children, minorities and recent immigrants. The census bureau is working closely with minority groups to persuade everyone that it's in their and the national interest for everyone to be counted. As part of that effort, it's conducting a major advertising campaign working with minority groups and making a concerted effort to hire language specialists or multi-lingual census takers to assist in the count.
------------------------------- | | Martino: Why does it seem the Census so important to politicians and what do you see is the potential political influence on certain aspects of the Census? Bob: A full and accurate census is important for 3 reasons: 1) Federal, state and local governments rely heavily upon the data collected by the census and corporations and non-profits also rely upon that information; 2) Every year the Federal government distributes more than 300-million dollars according to forumulas that use the data collected by the census. If a state or community is undercounted it can lose a significant amount of federal dollars or even state support; 3) The census data is used in the apportionment of congressional districts and state legislative districts as well. For all those reasons it's in the interests and self interests of federal legislators and state governments that everyone in their jurisdiction gets counted. There are of course some disagreements about how the census is conducted and whether for example the census should be adjusted for any under count of minorities and other under counted populations. But in principle, everyone agrees that it should be full and accurate. -------------------------------
| | Erin: Almost all global issues have been tied to the problem of overpopulation in the world. What are some of the trends of human population for the next ten years and what do you think is a sustainable level of population for the world?
Bob: World population today is 6.8 billion people. Over the next 10 years, it's anticipated that world population will increase by nearly 1 billion and will reach the 8 billion mark by 2025. There is a vigorous debate today about how many people can live on the planet and at what level of consumption. A growing number of environmental experts believe our current population of 6.8 billion people is not sustainable in the long run. We simply have two many people consuming too many resources. If everyone enjoyed a U.S. standard of living, some experts believe that the world could not support in the long run more than 1 or 2 billion people. But by 2050 it's estimated the world population will reach 9.2 billion or even higher before world population begins to decline. We have to ask ourselves if we add another 2.5 billion people to the planet over the next 40 years, will there be enough fresh water, will there be enough food, will more people be living in extreme poverty and of course what kind of environmental impact will population growth have on the oceans, the forest and most importantly our climate.
------------------------------- | | Erin: What forces result in couples having fewer children, and which countries in the world are seeing shrinking populations? Bob: One factor is infant or child mortality. If there's a high probability that a child will die, mothers will want to bear more children. Another factor is education, as girls and women become better educated they tend to want smaller families. But a core problem is that a lot of women want to limit or space their pregnancies but lack knowledge or access to modern methods of contraception. In many developing countries, young girls are taken out of school and married at a very young age. Those girls will tend to have more children in their lifespan as well. As for which countries are seeing shrinking populations, in about 50 countries, birthrates have declined so sharply that population levels may actually decline over the next several decades. Those countries for the most part are in Europe or in East Asia. But birthrates are still very high in sub-Saharan Africa and in parts of South Asia. Some countries like Niger and Uganda may actually triple their population over the next 40 years. -------------------------------
| | Erin: How can new technology help solve overpopulation problems?
Bob: Technology has made it possible for more people to live on this planet. Advances in agriculture, including the widespread use of fertilizers, development of new crops and the use of intensive irrigation have made it possible for world population to quadruple in size during the 20th century. The "green revolution" has made an enormous difference. But there are signs that the green revolution is in trouble. Because of intensive irrigation, water levels are declining rapidly in many parts of the world, underground aquifers are being depleted, the widespread use of fertilizers is degrading soil quality and polluting the oceans and there's also a growing shortage of farm land. Looking ahead, climate change is going to increase both drought and flooding and it's ancitipated that rising energy prices will make it ever more expensive to grow food. As a result many experts fear that factors such as population growth, changing diets, and changing climate will soon overtake technological advances and our capacity to grow food for a hungry world.
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| | Claire: The age of a population seems to have a strong impact on the economy and the politics of a country, and today we have the oldest population the world has ever seen. What are the economic implications?
Bob: Due to declining birthrates and rising life expectancy, the number of people over the age of 65 is rising sharply, particularly in Europe and East Asia. An aging society does pose a challenge for policymakers, but it's not an insurmountable one. Yes, the ratio of workers to retirees in these countries will decline and that's a problem for governments that have to pay social security and provide healthcare for that population. But there are solutions. As people approach their retirement years, they will need to save more. As people live longer, they may have to work longer, and government policies may need to change to encourage more savings, better pensions and longer working lives -------------------------------
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Martino: Immigration seems to be a major issue and as people travel more and more. What is immigration's impact on population - provide some examples...
Bob: If a country faces a labor shortage, immigration can increase the number of workers and taxpayers and that's certainly happening today in Europe and that's good, a response to a demand of an aging society. But new immigrants also pose a potential burden to society. Governments may have to build more schools, more housing and more highways to accommodate more people. Government healthcare costs can also rise. Immigration and higher population levels can also increase the stresses on the environment and scarce resources like water. Governments need to determine what level of population in the long run is both sustainable and desirable -------------------------------
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Claire: Hans Rosling did a presentation at the TED conference that surprised many by showing new trends in population growth happening all over the world. What are some population facts that people might find surprising?
Bob: One of the biggest public misconceptions is what some demographers call the birth dearth. Yes, some countries like Russia will actually contract in size due in part at least to declining birth rates. But world population is still growing. World population in fact has increased by a factor of ten in the last 300 years and will likely grow by another 40-percent over the next 40 years. Some people are surprised to learn that the U.S. population is still growing. The population in the U.S. has jumped from 3 million in 1776 to 307-million people today and by mid-century, the U.S. Census Bureau estimates that we'll have 438-million people. While population birthrates in many nations have declined sharply in the past 50 years, population in many of the poorest countries is still growing very rapidly. Even with a continued decline in birthrates, some countries will triple their population over the next 40 years. A large number of countries will double their populations. What we don't know and can't know today, is whether those countries will be able to feed themselves 40 years from now. Many of those countries are already highly dependent on external food assistance. If world grain reserves continue to shrink as they have done for most of the past decade, many of those countries could be in severe trouble.
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Claire: There is data that shows that younger populations are more likely to go to war and also that people are fighting in regions all across the globe for access to food and water. What is the Population Institute doing to try to address this?
Bob: It is a very significant problem. Many of the poorest countries in the world have what some demographers call a "youth bulge", meaning an exceptionally high number of young people as a percentage of the population. In some of the poorest developing countries, half of the population is under the age of 20. When you have a large number of young people in their teens and their twenties, and not nearly enough jobs to employ them, the youth bulge can contribute to social unrest, civil war and even regional conflict. And unfortunately when the unemployment rate is 20 or 30 percent in these countries there are no easy answers. Neither poor nor donor countries have the resources to employ those kinds of numbers. What we can do, and what the Population Institute is committed to doing is helping to prevent future youth bulges. We urgently need to expand voluntary family planning services. U.S. support for international family planning assistance has declined by more than 20-percent in real dollar terms over the last 13 years. The U.S. is now increasing its level of assistance and that's very important but it's also important for other donor nations, particularly in Western Europe and in East Asia to increase their contributions to family planning and reproductive health services. The Population Institute is working both with the U.S. Congress and international parliamentarians to understand the enormous benefits that are derived by the expansion of family planning and preproductive health services. -------------------------------
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| : Erin: Thanks Bob. Bob Walker is Executive Vice President of the Population Institute. You learn more about the Institute¡¦s work here: www.populationinstitute.org -------------------------------
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